At all times, we have experienced crises and at all times they have occurred unexpectedly, more exactly, they surprised us. And each time we realize that they have been different, despite similarities.
If it is impossible to know and to define a date of beginning of crisis, we are however certain to know a new one which will be different from the preceding ones.
Remember how crises are born. In fact, things are pretty simple. A crisis arises from one or more deviations of fundamental elements. Deviations which, especially at birth, emit very weak, almost imperceptible signals, to which no attention is paid or systematically underestimated. Hence the state of total surprise when the crisis "bursts".
Where will the next crisis come from?
There is much talk in the financial and economic spheres of the onset of a new financial crisis (a correction) after a booming decade, the impact of rates that should rise, and a still fragile global growth.
But while the 2008 crisis was of a "systemic" and rather a banking nature, the new crisis will be more like that of the central banks, which totally skewed the economy by generating paper money to save the banks and certain indebted states, and therefore a monetary crisis because the currency created by a central bank is fiduciary and is not guaranteed by anything. The value of money depends exclusively on the confidence to the central bank in preserving the purchasing power of his money.
However, a banking and systemic financial crisis can not be ruled out altogether, since the regulatory measures adopted have also had the effect of triggering movements of concentrations of banking institutions thus creating new entities "to big to fail" likely to cause a crisis similar to that due to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, more concretely materialized today by the cases of Deutsche Bank and Unicredit.
A crisis related to sovereign debt also remains relevant because many emerging and also developed countries in the world, and in Europe especially with Italy, have seen their debt ratio rise sharply and have seen the emergence of nationalists and policies pushing for public spending, further aggravating the debt.
The zones of tension and conflict: military, commercial, religious, ethnic and others have greatly expanded and hardened around the world generating terrorism, insecurity, migratory flows throughout the world.
Global, and also European governance has been unable to handle the situation, to solve problems. All parties and national democratic political powers have today lost the confidence of people who reject them brutally, in favor of dictatorships and radical movements, nationalist, extremist and protectionist measures.
After Greece, a case already very difficult to control, here is Italy, the third power in Europe, which threatens the financial and political balance, while at the same time Poland, Hungary, Austria, and for a little France and even today Germany have seen a meteoric rise of nationalist movements, minority, and the questioning of their systems, representatives and political parties yet hegemonic.
For EU, let's add the impacts of the Brexit.
In the Middle East, North Africa, Eastern and Sub-Saharan Africa the situation has become almost inextricable and political and economic problems are numerous in the rest of Africa as in Central America (Venezuela, Honduras, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil ...).
The increase of the population combined with the increase of the life span raises the problem of the occupation and the management of the available space, the availability of the food, natural and energy resources, finally the pollution of the environment.
But we are also likely to face a period of global warming of the Earth (natural, even if most likely accelerated and intensified by human activities) and tectonic movements of the continental plates as evidenced by eruptive, earthcakes phenomena of recent times, with their multiple and very important impacts.
Too hot, too dry, without water, flooded, unstable, destroyed, deserted or invaded, polluted, large parts of the world are affected and therefore its inhabitants will have to move and change with all the social and economic, political implications that implies.
The natural disasters that we know have already demonstrated their direct and concrete impact on local and global activity, eco- nomic, financial and certain local cultures and activities.
Bio-technology and artificial intelligence, robots, automated and autonomous transport, environmental conditions will profoundly impact and thus change humanity.
The impacts on today's societies will be considerable at all levels, and some are already insidiously at work, causing tension and even violence.
How will societies react?
As we can see, it is not the deviations on fundamentals that are missing. We can logically say that we are already in crisis!
What is new and must alert us all the more strongly and quickly is that unlike the crises experienced in recent decades that had a reason, an origin, a territory, a single dimension and was quite simple (and could therefore be overcome and to be solved by a rather simple one-dimensional solution) is that we have every chance of experiencing this time a multifactorial, multidimensional crisis, each triggering, reinforcing the other.
In other words, the crisis will this time have a different scale and it will not be treated and overcome with our solutions and our usual approaches.
It will not be enough for the central banks to create more money and for national governments to use tricks, beautiful sentences with simple words and everybody on the Earth will be impacted.
We must change the height and the paradigm.
So what should you do?
That is to say :
for 98% of you who are in this situation: at least significantly lighten what you have invested in banking / stock / financial products, and invest in certain tangible, physical assets to limit the consequences of a financial crisis
significantly reduce your investments in Europe and the USA (+ 95% of global investments are made in these two areas) to spread them across different regions of the world, to limit the consequences of a political crisis, a financial crisis and partially a environmental crisis.
and forge your vision of the future to build on the founding elements of the future.
Because with nearly 100% invested in banks and their financial products and nearly 100% invested in Europe / USA, you are 100% exposed on all dimensions of all crises